Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
